John Kilcullen
Copyright (c) 2000, 2004, R.J. Kilcullen.
In Australia we generally expect that in the Lower House the Government will have a majority (in fact Labor and LNP politicians sometimes claim that ours is a "two party system"). But it is possible that no party or coalition will have more than 50% of the seats. This can happen if there are three or more nearly equally strong parties, for example, when a popular new party arises, or when a major party splits, or when there is a "Proportional Representation" voting system (e.g. in the ACT and in Tasmania). In such a situation a Government will be formed by the party or coalition that has the best chance of being accepted, at least for a while, by the majority of members of Parliament. This will usually be the party that won the largest number of seats, but it may well be some other party -- the largest party does not necessarily form the minority Government.
A coalition is not necessarily a minority Government. The difference is that in a coalition two or more parties have an explicit alliance, and if they form the Government usually the ministers will come from both parties; together the coalition parties may have a majority of seats in the lower house of Parliament. But in minority government the party or parties that form the government do not have a majority of seats, so that the Government could be outvoted in the house at any time. The minority government lasts because its opponents allow past all or most of its vital legislation, especially its budget, because for the time being they do not want to bring the government down.
What will make opponents tolerate a minority Government? They may not see any possibility of forming another Government that would be tolerated, and they may not want to face a new election (e.g. because they have no funds to fight another election just yet, or because electors do not seem ready to support them).
The best tactic for a minority government is to press ahead to implement its most popular policies, daring its opponents to block them -- the implicit threat being that it will call an early election over opposition frustration of these popular policies. In such a situation opponents may abstain from voting in Parliament against Government measures, or they may even vote in their favour, either under protest or claiming that they also believe in these policies. A minority government may work quite well for a long time, by keeping close to what electors want.
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